Mesoscale Discussion 0747
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming and northeastern
   Colorado...and into the Nebraska Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261745Z - 261945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial storm development is expected across portions of
   the central High Plains, focused on eastern WY/northeastern CO,
   within the next 1 to 2 hours.  WW will likely be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front -- extending
   from a low over central Wyoming -- draped southeastward across
   southeastern Wyoming and far northeastern Colorado into northwestern
   Kansas.  As cirrus has thinned across eastern Wyoming, heating of
   the modestly moist boundary layer has resulted in 500 to 1000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE development along the boundary.  

   As the upper circulation indicated by WV imagery near the
   northwestern corner of Wyoming continues eastward, increasing ascent
   -- focused near the surface low and associated warm front -- to
   permit storm development to occur.  The increase in ascent is
   evident across the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming within a
   visible satellite loop, where cumulus has begun to grow/increase. 
   This trend should continue, and coupled with continued
   heating/modest destabilization with time, storm development is
   expected to occur.

   With southeasterly low-level flow in the vicinity of the front
   beneath mid-level west-southwesterlies that should gradually
   strengthen with time, shear will favor rotating storms initially. 
   Large hail, and locally damaging winds, would be the primary severe
   risks.  With time, linear/upscale growth is expected, as storms move
   into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon/this evening --
   suggesting increasingly widespread potential for damaging winds.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43520502 42970353 42320224 41520161 40190176 39970278
               39970495 41420515 42920601 43520502