Mesoscale Discussion 0746
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

   Areas affected...northern VA...MD...DE and far southern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261721Z - 261845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms
   this afternoon into early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allowed
   temperatures to warm into the 80s to low 90s amid upper 60s to low
   70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in weak to moderate
   destabilization with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE present across the
   region. Isolated convection is developing over the higher terrain of
   WV and a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form over the next
   couple of hours across northern VA/western MD. Effective shear will
   remain weak over the area, with around 20-25 kt currently forecast.
   Nevertheless, very steep low level lapse rates will promote strong
   downdraft potential. Should cold pool development occur, there is
   some potential that a better organized cluster could develop and
   grow upscale as it shifts across the Chesapeake Bay toward the
   DE/southern NJ coast early this evening. Convective trends will be
   monitored and a watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39697687 39677594 39677559 39497519 39257483 39027477
               38767476 38417494 38257520 38107571 37957616 38077760
               38157789 38257824 38417844 38637852 39007844 39357827
               39567803 39737752 39697687