Mesoscale Discussion 0713
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Southeast Colorado...far
   Southwest Kansas...and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232041Z - 232215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for potential severe thunderstorm
   watch later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a band of towering cumulus
   continuing to develop along a dry line extending from the Raton Mesa
   south across portions of eastern New Mexico. Water vapor shows an
   upper-level vort max ejecting into portions of north-central New
   Mexico. This feature should provide mid-level forcing for ascent as
   it overspreads the aforementioned convective development in the next
   couple of hours. As this occurs, isolated storms are expected to
   develop along the dry line.

   Clear skies east of the dry line have allowed for sufficient
   destabilization to occur through early afternoon, with MLCAPE of
   1500-2000 J/kg and 40-45 kt of effective shear. Should storms
   develop, they may struggle initially amid relatively drier low-level
   moisture in proximity to the dry line. However, farther east the
   environment is more supportive of organized convection, including
   supercells and multicell structures, with large hail and damaging
   winds the primary threats. A tornado or two is possible,
   particularly later this evening as boundary layer decoupling and
   low-level jet onset occur.

   In summary, this region continues to be monitored for potential
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35020286 34520417 34930480 36260452 37100409 38120358
               38230276 38040170 36070204 35020286