Mesoscale Discussion 0712
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231959Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of large hails and severe wind gusts
   possible this afternoon, watch issuance unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears to be occurring over the
   Davis Mountains in southwest Texas. Clear skies have allowed
   temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F in this area amid
   dew point temperatures in the mid 50s F. Farther east, deep
   southeasterly low-level flow has resulted in somewhat richer
   near-surface moisture, with dew point temperatures in the low 60s F.
   These conditions, combined with at least moderate low- and mid-level
   lapse rates, are yielding a north-south axis of instability,
   characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Despite these
   thermodynamic indices, deep-layer and low-level shear remains rather
   weak.

   The current expectation is for storms to continue developing over
   the high terrain areas of southwest Texas and move east/southeast
   with time, into the somewhat richer low-level moisture reservoir.
   This evolution is supported by recent HRRR runs. Large hail and a
   few severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. The lack of
   appreciable flow aloft over the region should result in somewhat
   disorganized convective evolution with time. Thus, watch issuance is
   not anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29980318 30230396 31110431 32090358 31920236 30430228
               29980318