Mesoscale Discussion 0669
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

   Areas affected...portions of southeast LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180810Z - 180945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief, weak tornado is possible across parts of
   southeast Louisiana early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms across southeast LA have
   shown transient, weak rotation the past hour or so. Overall, this
   activity is occurring in weak instability and modest shear. However,
   low level southeasterly winds around 20-30 kt are resulting in
   modest low level hodograph curvature. Furthermore, surface dewpoints
   near 70 F are aiding in moderate low level instability with a
   corridor of 0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-125 J/kg evident in latest
   mesoanalysis. Poor low level lapse rates and overall marginal
   larger-scale environment will limit longevity/intensity of organized
   cells. However, the moist/unstable low levels amid somewhat
   favorable low level shear could result in a brief/weak tornado. The
   overall threat is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not
   expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29649079 30299049 30569011 30608983 30438948 29898952
               29258972 28909014 28789071 28869106 29119114 29649079