Mesoscale Discussion 0567
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

   Areas affected...southern Missouri/northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090846Z - 091045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong storms -- a few capable of hail and/or wind
   gusts near severe levels -- will be possible across the Ozarks
   region this morning.  However, low-end/isolated risk that is
   expected to persist appears likely to remain too low to warrant new
   WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a mature, arcing band of
   thunderstorms moving southeastward across southwestern and central
   Missouri at this time.  Meanwhile, isolated storms have developed
   farther south, across northwestern Arkansas/southwestern Missouri,
   in response to increasing low-level warm advection associated with a
   veering low-level jet.

   Amply steep lapse rates across the region are providing sufficient
   -- though slightly elevated -- CAPE, on the order of 500 to 1500
   J/kg.  This -- combined with moderate/very weakly veering flow in
   the cloud-bearing layer -- is supporting a few stronger updrafts,
   and will likely continue to do so as convection spreads across the
   Ozarks.  However, with severe potential expected to remain rather
   low-end and isolated, a WW is not currently anticipated.  We will
   continue to monitor convective evolution across the area, for any
   signs of increased severe risk.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35599418 36579347 37109373 37499419 38279308 38109231
               37389112 36869121 36179109 35889236 35599418