Mesoscale Discussion 0566
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western and central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...

   Valid 090639Z - 090815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across portions of western and
   central Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing MCS moving
   eastward/southeastward across western and into central Missouri at
   this time, straddling a warm-frontal boundary that extends
   southeastward across the state.  Instability diminishes with
   eastward extent into eastern Missouri, and thus more vigorous
   convection is preferentially developing on southwestern portions of
   the band, while gradual weakening occurs farther northeast.  As a
   result, a continued/gradual turn more to the southeast is expected,
   with convection spreading across toward/across the Ozarks of
   southern Missouri with time, and this tendency reinforced by gradual
   veering of the low-level jet overnight.

   With that said, while convection will persist overnight, overall
   intensity is expected to very gradually decrease, and thus severe
   potential is likely to become more isolated/local, and tied to
   briefly stronger updrafts within the band.  Therefore, while still
   well-contained within the watch, possible future need for a new WW
   downstream remains uncertain at this time, and will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Goss.. 05/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38669502 38709447 39129359 39519344 39369273 38699185
               37359190 37279287 37359387 37799497 38499507 38669502