Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...far east TX...southwest into west-central and
   northeast LA

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 171338Z - 171745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy freezing rain rates are forecast to develop and
   spread into central LA over the next few hours.  Rates 0.10 to 0.30
   inch per 3 hours are probable.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 730am CST shows an expanding
   precipitation shield across southeast/east TX moving into western
   portions of LA.  Strengthening low-level warm air advection atop a
   shallow sub-freezing layer is providing ample lift.  The 6am CST
   Lake Charles raob showed a vertical profile supporting freezing
   rain, whereas Shreveport farther north where the cold air is deeper
   near the surface, supports mainly a sleet/freezing rain mixture. 
   Surface observations over east TX the past few hours have recorded
   varying liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts.  Lufkin was located
   in a heavier precipitation band and recorded 0.25 inch in 1 hour
   between 6-7am CST.  Expecting the continuation of moderate to
   locally heavy freezing rain rates through the late morning as the
   precipitation develops east-northeast across LA.  Some of the
   heavier bursts of freezing rain may be augmented by convection.

   ..Smith.. 02/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31729388 32429254 32419158 32039118 31359160 30249321
               30249378 30749409 31209407 31729388