Mesoscale Discussion 0106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...middle and upper coastal plains of TX...eastern
   TX...southwest and west-central LA

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 170755Z - 171400Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be the primary precipitation type from
   the coastal plain on the middle and upper TX coast into western
   parts of LA.  Rates will range from 0.05 to 0.15 inch per 3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a series of mid-level
   shortwave troughs moving through the base of a large-scale trough
   centered over the southern High Plains into northern Mexico.  Strong
   low-level warm air advection, implied by the strongly veering and
   strengthening wind profile according to KHGX 88D VAD data, is
   expected to intensify further through the overnight into the early
   morning across the northwest Gulf Coast.  Model guidance indicates
   3-hourly liquid-equivalent rates approaching 0.05 inch near
   Matagorda Bay, but a swath of heavier 3-hourly rates (0.05-0.15
   inch) will extend from near College Station eastward into southwest
   LA.  Forecast soundings show the shallow sub-freezing airmass being
   maintained roughly 1 county/parish tier inland from the coast during
   the period.  Atop this sub-freezing layer, a warm layer around 850
   mb ranges from 6 to 9 degrees C---supporting freezing rain as the
   primary precipitation type.

   ..Smith.. 02/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31799470 31669339 31269291 30649274 30009300 30139389
               29909490 29249607 28409707 28579738 29759760 30959703
               31599591 31799470