Mesoscale Discussion 1697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Kansas and adjacent southern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110716Z - 110845Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO CONCERNING PRESSURE RISES

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Barring substantive further strengthening of ongoing
   thunderstorm activity, a watch may not be issued.  But convection
   may continue to pose a risk for at least occasional gusts
   approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, in addition to heavy
   rainfall, along the Interstate 70 corridor of north central into
   northeast Kansas, through 3-5 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A substantive surface cold pool appears to have
   developed in association with the evolving convective system, with 3
   mb 2-hour surface pressure rises observed at Hill City at 06Z (along
   with 44 kt peak gusts).  Convection is embedded with an environment
   characterized by large CAPE and weak to modest deep-layer shear
   (largely due to veering of winds with height).  Activity seems
   likely to maintain intensity at least another couple of hours, into
   the 08-10Z time frame, largely supported by forcing for ascent
   associated with low-level warm advection and enhanced convergence,
   on the nose of a 30-40 kt kt nocturnal low-level jet.

   A continued gradual veering of this low-level jet from southerly to
   southwesterly during the next few hours is expected to support the
   eastward development of ongoing activity near/north of the
   Interstate 70 corridor of north central into northeast Kansas. 
   Relatively warm mid-levels and modest to weak (up to 20 kt westerly
   deep-layer mean ambient wind fields) are potentially limiting
   factors to severe weather potential.  However, it is possible that a
   sufficiently strong surface cold pool and rear inflow may be
   maintained to support a continuing risk for strong wind gusts
   approaching or briefly exceeding severe wind gusts, until convection
   weakens as low-level jet forcing diminishes toward daybreak.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39869888 40059785 39999660 39299588 38689660 38779891
               39289891 39869888