Mesoscale Discussion 1696
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019

   Areas affected...northwestern and north central Kansas into southern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110443Z - 110615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of strong storms has accelerated across portions
   of northwestern Kansas, with attendant damaging wind and large hail
   risk.  WW may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms which moved out of eastern Colorado
   into northwest Kansas, has recently produced a downburst, with
   measured winds to 75 MPH observed in Thomas County KS.  This cluster
   of storms is expanding along the outflow, both north and south, and
   is moving quickly east-northeastward at near 40 kt.  

   A very moist/unstable airmass exists ahead of the convection, with
   surface southeasterly winds veering/increasing to southwesterly at
   30 kt at 1km per the latest DDC VWP, and then on around to westerly
   through mid levels.  It appears possible that the moist/unstable
   low-level inflow may continue to sustain the storms, and with
   deep-layer shear supportive of organized updrafts, risk for damaging
   winds and hail -- and even a brief tornado -- appears to exist
   locally.  Depending upon evolution of this convection in the near
   term, a downstream WW may be required.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 08/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38670092 39410126 40000109 40569908 40419722 39769720
               38999910 38670092