Mesoscale Discussion 1572
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222222Z - 230015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms forming over the higher terrain in southern Arizona
   and eastern Arizona/western New Mexico are expected to congeal and
   move westward through the evening with a threat for severe wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are in their initial development stages in the
   higher terrain south of Tuscon and also along the mountains
   northeast of Phoenix southeastward into western New Mexico. These
   storms should be efficient downdraft producers considering the hot
   surface temperatures, very steep low-level lapse rates, and high
   cloud bases. As outflow boundaries collide, these storms are
   expected to congeal into one or more clusters that move westward
   through the evening. These clusters will likely maintain some
   organization given around 25-30 knots of effective shear, and may
   pose a threat for severe wind gusts and possibly blowing dust. The
   threat will likely be maximized near Tuscon in the next few hours
   with the potential for storms to impact the Phoenix area by late
   this evening. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover the threat
   through the evening.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31250901 31291112 31771278 32671243 33791189 34281057
               34020917 33030820 32140833 31250901