Mesoscale Discussion 1334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019

   Areas affected...North central through northeast Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474...

   Valid 012240Z - 020015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development, posing a risk for
   severe hail and wind, is expected to remain most numerous across the
   Missouri Valley area of north central into northeast Montana through
   7-8 PM MDT.  However, isolated storms posing similar severe weather
   potential may eventually develop east and south of the watch.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered discrete strong to severe thunderstorm
   development is well underway, mainly across the Missouri Valley area
   of north central into northeastern Montana.  This appears to be
   associated with the most appreciable forcing for ascent, associated
   with one or two low amplitude perturbations within a seasonably
   strong belt of westerly mid/upper flow (including 40-50 kt at 500
   mb), within broader scale ridge across and east of the northern
   Rockies.

   In the presence of strong, largely unidirectional deep-layer shear,
   and a relatively deeply mixed boundary layer with CAPE on the order
   of 1000-1500+ J/kg, supercellular convection will remain possible
   into this evening,  accompanied by the risk for severe hail and
   locally strong surface gusts.  By the 02-03Z time frame, storms
   could begin to develop east of the watch, across the remainder of
   northeastern Montana, perhaps into northwestern North Dakota, as
   well as off the higher terrain of south central Montana into areas
   of southeast Montana near/southeast of Interstate 94.  However,
   coverage may remain isolated enough, coupled with the onset of
   boundary layer cooling/stabilization, that additional severe weather
   watches may not be necessary.

   ..Kerr.. 07/01/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48890394 47420407 45630556 45670926 47601044 48861055
               48890394