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Mesoscale Discussion 1295 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019
Areas affected...Richland County Montana into northwest North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...
Valid 290928Z - 291115Z
CORRECTED FOR HEADER
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms have trended toward supercell mode over the last
hour. Large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms that formed along the outflow boundary have
gradually increased in intensity, with supercells now noted on
radar. Once such storm over Richland County MT has broad rotation,
with a very high echo top. Another supercell now exists over western
McKenzie County ND, just northeast of the Richland cell. Both these
cells are near the outflow boundary. Additional cells also continue
to strengthen northeastward into Mountrail County.
Given supercellular mode, low-level shear may more easily become
incorporated into the updrafts despite moderate boundary layer CIN.
Storms may also utilize enhanced vorticity as they interact with the
outflow boundary, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Large
hail remains likely with steep lapse rates aloft and ample moisture
(PWAT up to 1.50").
..Jewell.. 06/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 47640438 47970390 48300318 48550269 48760231 48780185
48570138 48130132 47860203 47650261 47600328 47520389
47530409 47640438
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