Mesoscale Discussion 1165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and far Southeastern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202124Z - 202300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain are
   beginning to move eastward onto the plains.  Convective trends will
   be monitored regarding the need for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture across Colorado,
   strong heating has led to destabilization and thunderstorm
   development over the higher terrain.  Westerly midlevel flow around
   30-40 knots (per area VWPs) is promoting eastward movement of these
   high-based thunderstorms toward the plains.  Given the low-level
   easterly upslope component of the flow, deep-layer shear (over 40
   knots) will be sufficient for organized storm structures and a
   damaging wind and hail threat.  While limited moisture/instability
   may hinder storm strength/severity initially, as the storms move
   eastward into better moisture, the intensity of storms are expected
   to increase.  Furthermore, storm cold pool mergers and an increasing
   low-level jet this evening should promote upscale growth with time,
   enhancing severe wind potential. Convective trends will be monitored
   for the possibility of a watch.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 06/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38240497 39110534 40060546 41160541 41790500 42130469
               42180420 42080358 41690300 40970246 40260204 39670180
               39030163 38430157 37860174 37560202 37300250 37310314
               37540393 38240497