Mesoscale Discussion 0912
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

   Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312006Z - 312200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated damaging wind gusts and instances of
   marginally severe hail will be possible as convection deepens and
   becomes surface-based this afternoon across northern Wisconsin.
   Storm coverage may increase later this evening as a mid-level low
   approaches, but threat should remain marginal. A WW is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has formed within a cluster of
   ACCAS in northern Wisconsin. This activity appears to be in
   association with weak mid-level perturbations on moisture channel
   imagery approaching the area from the Canadian Prairies. With time,
   continued boundary-layer destabilization should allow this activity
   to deepen and become surface based -- likely in the next hour or
   two. While effective deep-layer shear will be sufficient (30-45 kts)
   for storm organization, dewpoints have mixed out to the low to mid
   50s F leading to modest buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg. Any surface based
   convection that develops will be high-based and pose a primary
   threat of a few damaging wind gusts. Marginally severe hail may also
   occur should any stronger, more mature cells develop. Storm coverage
   is one uncertainty in this scenario. Coverage may increase later
   this evening, though, as ascent associated with a mid-level low now
   in western South Dakota approaches. Overall, the threat appears to
   be marginal and limited enough in space that no WW is currently
   anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45149250 45509257 45929242 46279192 46169014 45748774
               44758731 44338825 44799154 44919210 45149250