Mesoscale Discussion 0911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and Trans-Pecos Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 311933Z - 312130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm initiation is expected in the next two hours.
   Initial discrete storm mode will favor large hail and damaging wind
   gusts as primary threats. A tornado or two will also be possible
   early in the convective cycle. A severe thunderstorm watch will
   likely be needed in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow into the
   Trans-Pecos region and vicinity has allowed surface dewpoints to
   reach the mid 60s F with upper 50s F into southeast New Mexico.
   Agitated cumulus have formed on the Davis Mountains and nearby
   higher terrain. Despite weakly rising mid-level heights isolated to
   scattered development is expected within the next two hours. With
   continued boundary layer heating, MLCAPE values will remain at or
   above 2000 J/kg. Effective deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts will favor
   storm organization and rotation. Storms are expected to remain
   discrete, at least initially, and pose a threat for large hail --
   some reaching 2 inches in diameter -- and damaging wind gusts. Given
   the highly backed surface flow and modest increase in 850 mb wind
   this evening, a tornado or two will also be possible mainly with
   discrete activity in the Trans-Pecos region. A severe thunderstorm
   watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30430441 30840480 31730532 32640551 32980502 32810444
               32060362 31090260 30350221 29870265 29590319 29770393
               30430441