Mesoscale Discussion 0901
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

   Areas affected...southwest portions of the Trans-Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301926Z - 302130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a cold front and the higher
   terrain along the Mexican border in the Trans-Pecos. Supercells are
   likely to develop and pose a severe risk. A watch issuance is
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is currently moving over
   Arizona/New Mexico and a surface cold front has pushed southward to
   the Rio Grande today. Strong insolation in cloud-free portions of
   the Trans-Pecos has resulted in thermal circulations in conjunction
   with low-level forcing of the cold front/higher terrain to produce
   strengthening updrafts near the US-Mexico border. Storms will
   develop in a moderately buoyant environment characterized by
   1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective bulk shear/SRH of 50-60 knots
   and 200-300 m2/s2, respectively, indicate discrete supercells are
   likely to develop and pose a severe hail threat, possibly
   significant, with a couple of tornadoes also possible. Additionally,
   given the steepening low-level lapse rates due to the rapidly
   warming boundary layer, damaging wind gusts are also possible.

   The eastward extent of the severe threat, especially the tornado
   threat, may be limited due to the persistent low-level stratus
   clouds in portions of the Trans-Pecos. However, there is corridor of
   severe potential that will likely result in a watch issuance this
   afternoon.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 05/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29260410 29790467 30430506 31180598 31950594 32010590
               31970565 31970501 31150456 30350399 30110338 29860268
               29710261 29360271 29020290 28870318 28930356 29260410