Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

   Areas affected...Raton Mesa/vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301840Z - 302115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop over the higher terrain
   and will move eastward this afternoon/evening. Isolated marginally
   severe hail/wind are possible and a watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Per satellite imagery an upper-level shortwave trough
   is moving over Arizona/New Mexico providing forcing for ascent
   across the region. Insolation and weak upslope flow are helping to
   drive thermal circulations along the eastern slopes of the southern
   Rockies and over the Raton Mesa. Additionally, per satellite
   imagery/surface observations there appears to be a surface boundary
   locally enhancing convergence across southeast CO/northeast NM.

   Marginal CAPE (250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE per mesoanalysis/forecast
   soundings) and deep boundary-layer mixing will drive the severe
   threat given the weak low/mid-level shear. An isolated severe threat
   for marginally severe hail/wind exists this afternoon/evening across
   the area, thus a watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 05/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36330176 35950328 35820473 35840552 35950567 36550512
               37070488 37310474 37560410 37460319 37400229 37220175
               37080157 36690158 36330176