Mesoscale Discussion 0846
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
   Missouri...Southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 280958Z - 281200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue eastward into southwest Iowa
   and far northwest Missouri over the next few hours. Hail and wind
   damage would be the primary threats. WW issuance may be needed if
   the storms can maintain intensity.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS is currently moving eastward along and to the
   north of a quasi-stationary front. The front is creating a strong
   gradient of low-level moisture but the RAP is analyzing moderate
   instability on both sides of the boundary with MUCAPE values
   estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. A couple or organized line
   segments are located in this thermodynamic environment on the north
   side of the boundary where effective shear is estimated to be in the
   50 to 60 kt range. This combined with instability will be sufficient
   for an isolated severe threat for several more hours. As the storms
   move eastward toward the edge of the current watch, new watch
   issuance may be needed.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40019583 40009481 40549337 41349334 41969364 41909469
               41619562 40959619 40579649 40239650 40019583