Mesoscale Discussion 0539
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Areas affected...southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051833Z - 052030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Limited/local severe risk may evolve this afternoon across
   portions of the discussion area -- mainly in the form of gusty
   winds.  A watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface and objective analyses across the
   southeastern Virginia/northeastern North Carolina region indicate a
   moist/modestly unstable environment, with overall degree of CAPE
   limited due to a combination of heating being tempered by broken
   cloud cover, along with weak lapse rates aloft.

   Ahead of the eastward-moving surface cold front -- trailing
   southward from a weak northern Virginia surface low -- showers have
   been on the increase over the past 1-2 hours.  As heating maximizes,
   a few thunderstorms are expected to evolve.
     
   While modest CAPE should temper coverage/intensity of convection,
   moderately strong west-southwest flow aloft remains across the area.
   This will support fairly rapid cell motion, as well as bulk shear
   sufficient for storm organization.  Particularly if convection
   manages to grow upscale locally, into short bands, risk for
   gusty/locally damaging winds could accompany the convection. 
   Overall, the degree and coverage of risk should however mitigate the
   need for WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35637523 35337632 35277759 35337877 35657943 36457878
               37477810 37677750 37737627 37437560 35637523