Mesoscale Discussion 0538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northern and central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051559Z - 051800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Limited risk for damaging wind gusts locally will continue
   into this afternoon across parts of Florida.  Given the limited
   risk, a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of strong storms moving
   across northern Florida, with some embedded complex structures/areas
   of circulation.  The background environment across the northern half
   of the Peninsula is characterized by a moist/unstable airmass, per
   surface observations in conjunction with morning RAOBs, along with
   moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft.  The CAPE/shear combination
   will continue to support a few stronger cells, with locally
   gusty/damaging winds possible with the strongest updrafts.  Along
   with the ongoing band of storms crossing northern Florida, a
   second/weaker bowing band of cells off the west-central Florida
   coast could increase a bit as it encounters the diurnally
   destabilizing inland boundary layer.

   At this time, the expected isolated and low-end nature of the risk
   suggests that a watch will not be required.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30768142 29698097 28878056 27688076 27398127 27148231
               27458294 28338314 29288228 29988212 30768142