Mesoscale Discussion 0276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southeast AR...Northern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071545Z - 071645Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm organization and intensification appears
   possible across far southeast AR and central MS and convective
   trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has recently shown a bit more
   linear structure with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster across far
   southeast AR. This cluster was initialized by the warm-air advection
   across a stalled front (extending from far northwest LA across
   southeast AR and into northern MS) and was initially elevated.
   Recent convective trends suggest the development of a cold pool,
   which could increase the potential for surface-based thunderstorm
   development as it pushes eastward into an air mass more favorable
   for surface-based development. Recent mesoanalysis suggests limited
   convective inhibition exists downstream across northern MS.
   Additionally, low-level winds are more southeasterly downstream,
   increasing convergence along the cold pool. Some veering of these
   winds is expected over the next few hours but a favorable window for
   thunderstorm organization and intensification will still exist and
   convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34109135 34349023 34218877 33268881 32889098 33059176
               34109135