Mesoscale Discussion 0275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Areas affected...portions of central/southern Texas toward the Upper
   Texas Coast vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40...

   Valid 071141Z - 071315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds, hail and possibly tornado or two are
   expected through the morning hours from parts of central/southern
   Texas toward the Upper Texas Coast vicinity. A new watch will be
   needed downstream of WW 40 in the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing line of convection is currently tracking
   east/northeast across portions of the Texas Hill Country into
   southern Texas. This line was moving roughly along and south of
   quasi-stationary front stretching from near San Antonio
   northeastward into northern LA. Strong ascent and weak inhibition
   across the warm sector has lead to multiple areas of convection
   developing ahead of the bowing line  as well as in the vicinity of
   surface boundary further to the northeast. This has resulted in a
   somewhat messy evolution initially this morning. However, latest
   surface observation at UVA showed a temperature of 58 degrees and
   COT was 62 degrees. This suggests that a stronger cold pool is
   becoming better established. Furthermore, latest VWP from the CRP
   88-D showed increasing 3-6km winds of around 50 kt. All of this
   suggests that intensification of the line should occur through the
   morning hours and a the rear inflow jet strengthens. As such, a
   downstream watch will likely be needed by around 13z. 

   In addition to damaging winds and hail, at least a low-end tornado
   threat will exist. Low level shear is not overly impressive, but
   backed low level flow and the presence of the surface boundary will
   provide enough focus for both mesovortex formation along the line as
   well as for rotating updrafts in any discrete warm sector cells
   ahead of the line.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28569585 28019675 27529745 27389814 27539880 27989891
               29489926 29809918 30379682 30499638 30779538 30329476
               29609448 29239488 28569585