MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LOWER MICHIGAN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 080222Z - 080515Z
   
   SUMMARY...A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...AT RATES AROUND OR IN
   EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   MICHIGAN INTO THE MICHIGAN THUMB.
   
   DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...AND AHEAD
   OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST...A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
   EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   PRECIPITATION RATES APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING ACROSS
   SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXPANDING
   COLDER...AND COOLING...CLOUD TOPS.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS
   COINCIDING WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN A BAND ROUGHLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
   LANSING AND FLINT AREAS...INTO THE MICHIGAN THUMB...MOSTLY TO THE
   NORTHWEST OF THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 06-09Z.
    AS LIFT BECOMES MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES
   FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND LOW-LEVELS
   SATURATE...WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALREADY GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW
   FREEZING...SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR INCREASING
   LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 03-05Z...BEFORE
   DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   42298578 43098516 43728325 42928239 42498396 42118483
               42298578