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Mesoscale Discussion 121 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE GEORGIA...EXTREME SRN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080019Z - 080145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE BASED MOIST/NEAR
SATURATED LAYER MAY EXIST BENEATH MODESTLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...NEAR AND NORTH OF A 50-70+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE
OF THE ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SURFACE
BASED AS THEY APPROACH GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z.
AND...IF THIS OCCURS...HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB
FLOW ARE SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 02/08/2013
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32088241 32488206 32588150 32128070 31418107 30878146
30788208 31078262 31548252 31838247 32088241
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