MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891...
   
   VALID 170320Z - 170415Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 891 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 891 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES
   REMAINING POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. MONITORING FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ACROSS EASTERN NC/FAR
   SOUTHEAST VA.
   
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS /AS GENERALLY
   CHARACTERIZED BY QLCS STRUCTURES/ CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
   PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS NOTED
   NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER VICINITY AS OF 0315Z. MUCH OF THESE STORMS
   /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/ HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN ENCOUNTERING A
   SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE COAST. NONETHELESS...A
   HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR/SRH IS OBSERVED BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS/MORE
   RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUCH THAT ANY SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES COULD STILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR FOR EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA
   GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC/STORM-SCALE TRENDS...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
   SHEAR/SRH. SHORT TERM TRENDS /INCLUDING THE SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR
   NORTHERN NC/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH
   ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
   
   LAT...LON   31788070 32398129 33747950 34927829 36467827 36957578
               34677684 31788070