MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 170023Z - 170130Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE INCREASING THIS EVENING...A TORNADO
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA.
   
   RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS REFLECT A RECENT INCREASE IN LINEAR-TYPE
   CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...GENERALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE
   DANVILLE AREA AS OF 0015Z. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED
   J/KG...THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE
   LOW /WITH ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS/ AND HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD REFLECT CONCERN FOR A SUSTAINED QLCS WITH
   POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
   MATURE/DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CONTINUED INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   36587946 37507856 38007763 37187607 36587627 36587946