MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...ERN TX...SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 152149Z - 152345Z
   
   STORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER SERN OK...NERN TX AND INTO SWRN AR.
   THE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK
   WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE E. MEANWHILE...AN OLD OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY REMAINED FROM E CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS...WITH COOL STABLE AIR
   TO THE N. 
   
   A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS FORMED OVER NERN TX AND SERN OK
   WHERE HEATING OCCURRED N OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SUFFICIENT
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES IS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.
   DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS OVER TX AND
   OK...INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT BECOMING
   INEFFECTIVE FOR UNSTABLE PARCELS N OF I-40. AS THE FEATURE OVER SERN
   TX CONTINUES EWD...MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVER
   THE ARKLATEX. STILL...SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO WARRANT A WEATHER WATCH.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34929396 34499325 34299271 33849271 33299322 33119376
               33009424 32949504 32939585 33149616 33589614 34049567
               34599500 34979447 35009424 34929396