MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885...
   
   VALID 152030Z - 152230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885
   CONTINUES.
   
   RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS ACROSS SERN TX ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
   WITH INCREASING ECHO TOP HEIGHTS AND MESOCYCLONES ON A FEW CELLS.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW HAS FORMED NEAR THEN NRN EDGE
   OF A LINE OF STORMS...WHICH REMAINS BROKEN. THERE IS LITTLE WLY PUSH
   BEHIND THIS LINE...THUS STORMS MAY REMAIN CELLULAR RATHER THAN
   LINEAR. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN
   PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BASE VELOCITIES ON RADARS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN
   OUTFLOWS OF 30-40 KT.
   
   THE LATEST HOUSTON VAD WIND PROFILE DOES SHOW SOME LOCALIZED
   ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING STORMS AND MESO-LOW WITH 0-1 SRH
   AROUND 200 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES VERY POOR
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES...WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SLOW
   UPDRAFT GROWTH AND ACCELERATIONS.
   
   A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY CYCLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WEAK
   TORNADO. WITH MODERATE SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME OF
   THESE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
   SERN TX INTO LA. THUS...ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN A FEW
   HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   29049501 29479507 30079532 30629580 31369553 32479402
               32399324 31809272 30829272 30309288 29759314 29649379
               29339453 29049501