MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND A PORTION OF NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 072258Z - 080030Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR PONCA CITY OK ENEWD
   THROUGH SERN KS AND CNTRL MO. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW
   SWWD INTO SWRN OK. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THIS
   EVENING ALLOWING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH 500 J/KG
   MLCAPE TO ADVECT INTO SERN KS. A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
   N-CNTRL OK NNEWD TO NEAR EMPORIA KS AND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15
   KT. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   SIZEABLE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
   TRIPLE POINT IN KAY COUNTY OF N-NCNTRL OK...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SERN KS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THREAT COULD BE
   TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
   GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   36399676 37209672 37739636 37869562 37549488 36469576
               36399676