MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071827Z - 072000Z
   
   PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER
   THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON.
   
   MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W
   TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
   FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
   N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
   TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS
   ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH
   PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS
   WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA
   OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE
   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND
   BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
   SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A
   DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
   CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 11/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   34129831 33209925 32840046 32950119 34000135 34870085
               35989941 35849831 34129831