MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 070100Z - 070230Z
   
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK MAY POSE A
   MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
   APPEARS OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND A WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
   SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION.
   
   THIS EVENING A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH
   S-CNTRL OK. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL
   FORCING ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS
   ADVECTING NWWD. PROXIMITY FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE
   SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND NORMALIZED CAPE. AN INVERSION WAS ALSO EVIDENT
   AROUND 700 MB...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
   SHALLOW. A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATES SOME OF
   THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN. SFC-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE
   FURTHER AS LLJ INCREASES...SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH FROM 200-300 M2/S2
   IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL WHICH SUGGESTS THE WINDOW FOR ANY TORNADO
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32809910 34309771 35179691 34949623 33729674 32409834
               32339917 32809910