MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA TO SERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...
   
   VALID 101612Z - 101715Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 865 CONTINUES.
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS NONZERO ACROSS THE
   SERN GA PORTION OF WW 865.  HOWEVER...LIMITED NWD DESTABILIZATION
   TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS WWD REACHING APP BY
   00Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW TORNADO WATCH.
   
   MID-LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES AND TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING WNWWD ACROSS NRN
   INTO NWRN FL /35 S VLD AT 16Z/.  MODELS SUGGEST THE WWD MOVEMENT OF
   THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH LIMIT
   THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED
   15-30 MILES N OF THE FL/GA BORDER.  THIS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
   EXTENDING ACROSS SC WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
   NWD OVER SERN GA INTO SERN SC.
   
   ALTHOUGH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS
   SERN GA /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F/ WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE GREATLY INHIBITING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 200 M2/S2 ACROSS SERN GA. 
   HOWEVER...THE WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS LIMITING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
   STRONGER...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...STRONGER EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR IS LOCATED N OF THE WARM SECTOR AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN
   ENELY LLJ.  AS THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS LLJ SHIFTS WWD INTO SWRN
   GA/SRN AL CONCURRENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR /I.E. TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN GA/ WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30748099 30748312 31938247 32258156 32248106 31878052
               30748099