MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 100752Z - 100915Z
   
   A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN FL AND CSTL GA EARLY
   THIS MORNING. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS MORNING.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW NEAR DAYTON BEACH WITH
   STRONG ELY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NRN FL. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED
   FROM WEST TO EAST LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
   CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
   INCHES WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN PART OF THE SFC LOW. THIS COMBINATION
   OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS IN NRN FL EARLY THIS
   MORNING. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
   MOISTURE EXISTS FROM GAINESVILLE FL NWD TO LAKE CITY WHERE A
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO
   CSTL GA AND POSSIBLY WWD TOWARD NORTHWEST FL OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31798220 30408326 29838336 29578308 29508258 29768193
               30348162 31468126 31798220