MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM/WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 080140Z - 080315Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN NM/WEST TX...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD/AFTER
   MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TX. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERNS....AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
   
   STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INCREASED EARLY THIS
   EVENING...INITIALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE CLOVIS NM AREA AS OF 0130Z. A
   SURFACE DRYLINE/ASSOCIATED HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO
   RETREAT WESTWARD...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DEEPER IMPLIED FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACROSS NM. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
   EVENING...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
   COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE/MOIST AXIS...AFTER
   TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS MAINLY
   CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STRONG/DEEP
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT...WITH MORE OF A LINEAR MODE /INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HEAVY RAINFALL/ PROBABLE LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   32910397 34010364 34680323 34660203 34290181 32510214
               32410357 32910397