MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS / FAR SERN CO / OK-TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 072300Z - 080100Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED/ISSUED BY 00-02
   UTC AS STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS.  WHILE
   AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT INITIALLY BE HIGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
   RH AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST MARKEDLY INCREASE AFTER DUSK AND SUPPORT
   AT LEAST SOME SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT.
   
   RECENT LONG LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A RELAXING IN
   NEUTRAL TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
   VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO
   THE W OVER THE DESERT SW.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OCCUR INVOF THE TX-OK PANHANDLE AS LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WITHIN A MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW
   REGIME.
   
   LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE FROM
   WRN KS SWD TO NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR IN THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A LEE
   LOW OVER SERN CO.  CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
   MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE DRYLINE BUT IS
   FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE MAGNITUDE
   OF MIXING DECREASES AFTER SUNSET.  THIS INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   RH WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE AS A 50 KT LLJ BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED IN THE 03-06 UTC PERIOD.
   
   AS SUCH...EARLY STORMS THAT CAN ORGANIZE AND BECOME SUSTAINED MAY
   POSE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUST RISK.  THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE
   STORM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE 03-06 UTC PERIOD DURING WHICH A
   POSSIBLE ISOLD SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
   
   LAT...LON   39039971 35920032 35050079 34940197 35130277 35580292
               39660192 39940125 39690027 39039971