MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA/W CENTRAL SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 272016Z - 272115Z
   
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND NEWD INTO W CENTRAL SC
   SUGGESTS INCREASE IN MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
   DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ONGOING
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO YIELD MIXED-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO
   2500 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY HAS FUELED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....WITH A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARISING
   FROM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND AIDED BY MODEST SHEAR.  
   
   ATTM...DEGREE OF SHEAR APPEARS GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
   WELL-ORGANIZED/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT THAN HAS BEEN
   ANTICIPATED WITHIN EARLIER SPC FORECASTS.  DURATION OF THREAT SHOULD
   ALSO REMAIN LIMITED -- AS PEAK HEATING GIVES WAY TO SLOW DIURNAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.  IN THE MEAN TIME...ISOLATED/MARGINAL
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
   OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32058446 32808452 33238334 34108177 34078074 33488089
               31978224 31738289 31858385 32058446