MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN CNTRL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 270636Z - 270830Z
   
   STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SRN AR INTO W CNTRL MS...WITH
   HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO BE NECESSARY.
   
   AN AXIS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WELL ANTICIPATED BY MODELS...HAS
   FORMED OVER SRN AR IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. AREA SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
   INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS
   DECREASE WITH HEIGHT AND AS A RESULT...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR WHICH
   WOULD BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO SUPERCELLS APPEARS
   DEFICIENT. STILL...THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...ALONG WITH AREAS OF TRAINING WITH HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32749197 33259345 33719388 34349344 34459289 33949054
               33678935 33228917 32678949 32469052 32749197