MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL/NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 262010Z - 262145Z
   
   CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...BUT WW NOT LIKELY ATTM.
   
   LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS SLOWLY INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM E CENTRAL MS NEWD INTO NWRN GA...NEAR AND
   AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.  GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
   INDICATED FROM E CENTRAL MS SWWD...INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER FLOW
   FIELD ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...WEAKER MIXED-LAYER CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF
   500 TO 1000 J/KG/ EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF AL AND INTO NWRN GA...BUT 40
   TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS INDICATED
   -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  
   
   WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING AS AIRMASS REACHES
   MAXIMUM DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  WITH AMPLE FLOW ALOFT...SOME THREAT
   FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING GUST APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH A
   COUPLE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES -- LIKELY NOT REQUIRING
   WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   31698826 31798937 32358878 33348713 34158603 34658563
               35058353 34368330 32708576 31748747 31698826