MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/KY/TN...WRN PA/WV/VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 261816Z - 261915Z
   
   ISOLATED BOWING SEGMENTS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG
   WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON. DUE THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING IN ADVANCE OF BROADER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
   COLD FRONT REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN OH...CNTRL KY...MIDDLE
   TN...AND SWWD INTO NRN LA...DEMARCATED BY A DRIER AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 50S F. WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS
   BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGER CELL TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OH/WV
   BORDER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A MEANDERING UPPER LOW
   CENTERED OVER NRN IL REMAIN STRONG. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
   SUPPORT BRIEF ROTATION. FARTHER S...WEAKER...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES COMPARED TO FARTHER N AND LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE IN
   THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
   LIKELY LIMIT SUPERCELLULAR POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...
   
   LAT...LON   41828092 41787996 40807994 39338017 36948153 36138251
               36408316 38428251 41468139 41828092