MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / SERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 141922Z - 142015Z
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ONGOING STORMS OVER WV WILL
   PROBABLY INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH
   THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE.  A SEVERE WW WILL LIKELY NOT
   BE NEEDED.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.  NEUTRAL TO
   WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT HAVE PRECLUDED SUBSTANTIAL TSTM COVERAGE SO
   FAR.  HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AN APPRECIABLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.  ALTHOUGH
   THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SERN FRINGE OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW...INCREASING WLY 3 KM FLOW ALREADY EVIDENT AT KBGM AND KPBZ
   VAD/S /40 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA LATER TODAY.  COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
   NET RESULT MAY BE AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL
   CLUSTERS.  NONETHELESS...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   NOT DUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY--THUS NOT WARRANTING A WW.
   
   ..SMITH.. 09/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   38727964 38868038 39757990 40887633 40947567 40517543
               40017551 38857732 38667855 38727964