MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...SRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 141916Z - 142045Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AZ
   AND MAY SPREAD NWD INTO SRN UT THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
   WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
   TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN AZ
   ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM NEAR A MAXIMUM OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. THE
   STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE
   AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SRN NV SWD INTO SERN CA.
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH
   THE STRONGER CORES. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE INSTABILITY MAX IN
   NRN AZ.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
   
   LAT...LON   36420963 36881029 37181135 37501261 37671342 37341392
               37021386 36691362 35911286 35321223 34941108 34891018
               35600953 36420963