MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 122220Z - 130015Z
   
   STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR
   GUSTY WINDS. THE MINIMAL SVR THREAT AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   THE SSWWD EXTENSION OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST TRAILS
   INTO NRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN ATTENDANT LOBE OF ASCENT SHOULD AUGMENT
   LIFT PROVIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FL TO SUSTAIN
   SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG...THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
   AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
   HAS NOT ALREADY OCCURRED. OF NOTE...AN E/W-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ENTERING NRN PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE SURGING SWD
   WHILE ANOTHER E/W-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF US
   HIGHWAY 41. UNDERCUT CONVECTION FOLLOWING BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES
   COULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO /47 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST REPORT NEAR SUNRISE IN BROWARD
   COUNTY/ AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ALSO...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
   POTENTIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR UPON COLLISION OF THE
   BOUNDARIES FROM NEAR DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO SERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER
   COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
   ENHANCED WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES INTERSECT A NEARLY
   STATIONARY...N/S-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN COLLIER AND
   NERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS AN INFLUX OF ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT /PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/ ENHANCES DOWNWARD BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER
   FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT TO A SSWWD-TRAILING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX
   REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE AND MINIMAL SVR THREAT
   ANTICIPATED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z AS DIABATIC
   COOLING COMMENCES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 09/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
   
   LAT...LON   27218010 26697976 25568000 25248065 25548119 26548123
               27248089 27218010