MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121959Z - 122130Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN
   AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
   OF THE THREATS.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AZ
   ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE
   CURRENTLY IN NW AZ WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AZ SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
   STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAKING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
   POSSIBILITY. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
   INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT SUGGESTING THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WEST OF THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
   
   LAT...LON   33631335 34171083 35711013 37111082 37021246 36331420
               34881424 33631335