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Mesoscale Discussion 2109 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN LA / SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL / WRN FL
PNHDL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 828...
VALID 031841Z - 031945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 828 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER OF T.S. LEE NEAR
THE LA COAST /INVOF 7R4/ WITH LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATING A
CONTINUED NWD DRIFT OF SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS A
PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH HAS WRAPPED CYCLONICALLY AROUND
ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF T.S...RESULTING IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT POCKETS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER S-CNTRL/SERN LA.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST RAIN BANDS /SOME OF WHICH CONTAIN
LIGHTNING/ E OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HERE...A VERY MOIST/LOW LCL
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS ALIGNING WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SAME GENERAL
AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
..MEAD.. 09/03/2011
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30409323 30719253 30979213 31369160 31578861 31528705
31548650 30828621 30338599 29708638 28998668 28408815
28469037 28409169 29089282 30409323
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