MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL INTO SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 031724Z - 031830Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
   IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   THE RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS IS CURRENTLY
   BEING OBSERVED ALONG AN EWD-SURGING...RESIDUAL GUST FRONT FROM NEAR
   MKE SWWD TO JUST SW OF MLI.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS OF 65-70 F WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR
   MASS IS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING CAP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
   J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   REGIONAL VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT DISCUSSION AREA RESIDES
   ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/ ATTENDANT TO PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES.  BUT...GIVEN THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   FIELD AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME RISK FOR BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AS STORMS
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   40949001 42348861 43008755 42968598 42198521 41358579
               40728659 40518808 40638905 40949001