MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NORTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 211745Z - 211915Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
   LIKELY WILL REQUIRE A WW ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS RATHER MODEST...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE BECOME STEEP WITH STRONG HEATING...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
   HAS EXCEEDED 2000 J/KG ALONG SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE LEE OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 19-21Z...WITH A GRADUALLY
   INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL INTO THE
   LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   34608169 35818087 37857854 37217672 35957684 34397939
               34038111 34608169