MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HALF OF OH...NWRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 211743Z - 211845Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DMGG WINDS AND HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 
   
   A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE HRS AS THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
   DIURNAL HEATING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG A
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT /ANALYZED AT 17Z FROM 20 S YNG TO 25 NW DAY/
   WHICH IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ESEWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED IN THE WARM/MOIST PREFRONTAL AIR MASS. LACK OF WIDESPREAD
   CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG/...BUT WITH STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FORCED
   ASCENT FOCUSED FARTHER N/E TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
   HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO THE S OF AN APPROACHING
   SPEED MAX...EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING
   SEGMENTS/. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   38708164 38648258 38898435 39418485 40078485 40388448
               40488313 40468159 40168089 39788064 39148069 38878088
               38708164