MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NE CO AND FAR NW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 172000Z - 172200Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
   COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND
   IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN SUPPORT
   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR THE LEE
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION
   FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS LINGERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EAST
   OF SIDNEY NEB NORTHWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PHILIP SD.  HIGH
   RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
   INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION
   ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  ONCE STORMS
   FORM...MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
   WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   39810334 41040365 42950310 43860262 44680247 45320201
               45430105 44030020 43610030 42720050 39780134 39390265
               39810334